Producción, crecimiento económico y comercio internacional de México: un ensayo de diagnóstico y prospectiva

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32870/cer.v0i133.7891

Abstract

Here I propose that the link between economic growth and international trade is es-sential to understand the economic development of Mexico. For this reason, here I analyze econometrically quarterly time-series of production, imports and exports for the period 1993:Q1-2022:Q4. I use the results of the analysis to carry out a diagno-stic and prospective exercise of the country’s economic situation. The conclusions of the exercise suggest that: 1) Mexico needs to strengthen and enforce their national institutions, laws and international agreements; 2) Mexico must face the challenges associated with an economic growth driven by the depreciation of the dollar, the big differentials between international and national interest rates and high domestic infla-tion, and 3) current public policies could induce a new episode of the “Dutch disease” in Mexico.

Author Biography

Antonio Ruiz Porras, Universidad de Guadalajara
Here I propose that the link between economic growth and international trade is es-sential to understand the economic development of Mexico. For this reason, here I analyze econometrically quarterly time-series of production, imports and exports for the period 1993:Q1-2022:Q4. I use the results of the analysis to carry out a diagno-stic and prospective exercise of the country’s economic situation. The conclusions of the exercise suggest that: 1) Mexico needs to strengthen and enforce their national institutions, laws and international agreements; 2) Mexico must face the challenges associated with an economic growth driven by the depreciation of the dollar, the big differentials between international and national interest rates and high domestic infla-tion, and 3) current public policies could induce a new episode of the “Dutch disease” in Mexico.

References

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Published
2024-04-26
How to Cite
Ruiz Porras, A. (2024). Producción, crecimiento económico y comercio internacional de México: un ensayo de diagnóstico y prospectiva. Carta Económica Regional, (133), 59-72. https://doi.org/10.32870/cer.v0i133.7891
Issue
No 133 (36): Perspectivas de la economía Mexicana | Número 133 | Año 36 | Enero-junio de 2024 (Versión electrónica, ISSN-e: 2683-2852)
Section
THEMATIC ORIGINAL ARTICLES

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